1. The latest HDB flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024, released on Jan 2, showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5% in resale flat prices, slightly lower than the 2.7% q-o-q growth in the previous quarter. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases in the HDB resale segment.2. According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, the flash estimates indicate a 9.6% price increase in 2024, which is double the growth in 2023 but slower than the 10.4% increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021.3. Despite the overall price growth, data from data.gov.sg downloaded on Jan 2 at 8.15am, showed a slowdown in price growth for certain flat types. For instance, the median price for four-room flats saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5% in 4Q2024, a slower pace than the 3.4% growth in 3Q2024. Similarly, two-room flats saw a 2% q-o-q increase in 4Q2024, compared to 3.9% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, executive flats registered a 1.2% increase in 4Q2024, slower than the 1.7% growth in 3Q2024. On the other hand, prices for five-room flats grew 3.2% in 4Q2024, faster than the 1.2% increase in 3Q2024.4. The data also showed a 3.6% decline in resale volume year-on-year in 4Q2024, with a total of 6,314 units sold. According to Sun, this can be attributed to the launch of over 8,500 new flats by HDB during the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, which diverted demand away from the resale market. In addition, the seasonal year-end school holidays – when many Singaporeans travel abroad – also resulted in a decrease in house viewings and sales activities.5. Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, noted that the slower pace of growth in 4Q2024 is likely due to government intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. She added that the thinner resale volume during the quarter also contributed to the slowdown in price growth.6. Despite the slower growth in 4Q2024, the total resale volume in 2024 was 28,876 units, 8% higher than the 26,735 units recorded in 2023 and the 27,896 units in 2022. However, it is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021. Of the 283 units that were sold for more than a million dollars in 4Q2024, 58 of them were located in Toa Payoh.7. According to Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, the new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations, as these buyers are unwilling to accept the resale restrictions. He added that HDB resale prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower rate than in previous years, with 26,000 to 27,000 resale units projected to be sold by the end of the year.8. On the other hand, PropNex expects HDB resale prices to rise 5% to 7% in 2025, with a forecasted resale volume of 29,000 to 30,000 units. Meanwhile, Huttons Asia projects that HDB resale flat prices may grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8% in 2025, with a predicted transaction volume of 26,000 to 28,000 units. Overall, while prices are expected to continue increasing, the supply of BTO flats in 2025 is likely to reduce, prompting buyers to turn to the resale market.
